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CCTV, CCTV, you are watching the 2021 Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics. This text with its own broadcast effect is not funny, and if not surprising, it will become a reality next year.


Just a week ago, Abe also issued a bold statement saying that he would not consider the postponement of the event, but now he actively applied for it. In the eyes of many people, this game of interests and the epidemic is the outcome, but are the facts really as you imagined?


The postponement of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics is not surprising. The European Cup, the five major leagues, and the NBA, one by one, have fallen under the impact of the new crown epidemic. The pressure of public opinion in Japan resulting from the epidemic, the open boycott of the international Olympic delegation, and its own perfectionist tendencies have continued to obstruct the progress of the Tokyo Olympics.


Previously, many Japanese media speculated that the one-year postponement of the Tokyo Olympics would bring about US$6 billion in direct economic losses, including default payments for construction projects, venue rents, hotels, labor and so on. The author does not deny that this is a huge sum of money, but it is less than 0.2% compared to the total GDP of Japan for the whole year.


The real big shots are not caused by the postponement of the Olympics, but more by the epidemic.


In recent years, the tourism industry has become Japan’s second largest economic pillar after the automobile industry. In 2018, the number of foreign tourists entering Japan exceeded 30 million, inbound tourism spending exceeded 4.5 trillion yen (approximately US$40.5 billion), and profits exceeded 2.4 trillion yen (approximately US$21.6 billion). In a better situation, even if the Olympic Games are held as scheduled, how many spectators will come to watch the games regardless of the consequences?

近年来,旅游业已成为仅次于汽车业的日本第二大经济支柱。 2018年,进入日本的外国游客人数超过3000万,入境旅游支出超过4.5万亿日元(约405亿美元),利润超过2.4万亿日元(约216亿美元)。在更好的情况下,即使奥运会如期举行,无论后果如何,会有多少观众观看比赛?

Today, the epidemic is still raging around the world. Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and India have all adopted measures to "close the country". If the epidemic does not improve, how many countries will support the masses in Japan to participate in this grand event?


Turning the perspective back to Japan. According to official statistics, Japan’s epidemic is not considered a particularly serious country in the world. However, forcibly hosting the Olympic Games will put a huge test on Japan’s epidemic control. If it causes an epidemic to break out in Japan, it will be a loss. Will not be able to calculate.


Therefore, instead of forcing the Olympic Games to be held on time, it is better to retain the opportunity to hold this time and wait until a more suitable time to take action to gain greater benefits.


The Olympic Games may not be the most important part of Japan's overall economy, but will the postponement of the event bring a fatal blow to important parts of the Olympic industry chain such as copyright owners and sponsors?


The author interviewed a number of practitioners who have been in the sports industry for many years, and got almost unanimous answers: there will be shocks, but not fatal.


Because the event is only postponed, not cancelled, copyright, sponsorship rights, etc. only need to be postponed along with the event. This will cause related companies to not obtain any revenue during the postponement period, but almost all companies that can obtain Olympic copyrights and sponsor the Olympics are in the industry Giants, they have a strong ability to resist risks, and will not be dragged down because of the one-year postponement of the event. They can regain their strength when they get their due rights in the coming year.


Compared with this economic account, domestic public opinion and international pressure have given the Japanese authorities a headache.


Japanese media once pointed out in reports that after the outbreak, the number of tests for the new crown virus in Japan was only one-tenth that of South Korea, and the small number of tests is not limited by technology, and a large part of it is caused by human factors.


This matter was confirmed by the author in an interview with Japanese student Chen Xin (pseudonym). According to Chen Xin, the Japanese government has adopted the ostrich policy more in response to the epidemic. The purpose is to hold the Olympic Games as scheduled. This triggered Many people are dissatisfied, and people even questioned the fact that Japanese officials are hiding confirmed cases.


Chen Xin also cited an example of someone close to her. Her classmate Zhang Chen (a pseudonym) is a shopping guide for a duty-free shop, who specializes in receiving Chinese tourists. One day Zhang Chen developed a high fever at night and quickly called the emergency hotline, but was picked up by an ambulance. After the hospital, the doctor only asked two questions. Have you ever been to Wuhan? Have you been in contact with Wuhan people? When Zhang Chen answered no, the doctor sternly reprimanded him. Then you should not be suspicious of the new crown. Go home by yourself. Zhang Chen, who was not arranged for testing, took public transportation back home.


In stark contrast to the government’s ostrich mentality, the Japanese people have begun to change their attitude of “indifferent” from the beginning. “The number of people in the tram has been significantly reduced, and there are seats even during peak hours. This was unimaginable before. And there are more and more people wearing masks." Chen Xin said.

与政府的鸵鸟思想形成鲜明对比的是,日本人民从一开始就开始改变对“冷漠”的态度。 “电车上的人数已大大减少,即使在高峰时段也有座位。这是以前无法想象的。越来越多的人戴着口罩。”陈欣说。

According to a public opinion survey conducted by Japan News Online Weekly, nearly 70% of the respondents agreed to postpone the 2020 Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games, and 87% of the respondents believed that major domestic events should be cancelled.


Domestic public opinion is tense, and foreign countries are uneasy. Canada, Australia, and Norway have announced their withdrawal from the Tokyo Olympics this summer, and a "forced palace" drama is being staged.


Although many countries resisted going to Japan to compete, this was not the root cause of the postponement of the Tokyo Olympics, because in the 1980 Moscow Olympics, 40% of participating countries were absent. Since the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan at the end of 1979, many countries led by the United States expressed strong condemnation, and they also united to boycott the Moscow Olympic Games to be held the following year. Although 60 countries did not participate, the Olympic Games that year were held as scheduled. It can be said that as long as the IOC agrees, the absence of participating countries will not affect the Olympic Games as scheduled.


It can be seen from this that the IOC has a lot of power, but why does the IOC still insist on "obeying" the organizer's will when the multinational Olympic Committee has submitted a letter suggesting that it be postponed?


This is because the attractiveness of the Olympics is falling sharply. For the 2024 Olympics, only Los Angeles and Paris are the only cities to apply. In order to avoid the embarrassing situation of no one applying for the 2028 Olympics, the International Olympic Committee has given the right to host the 2028 to Los Angeles.


So who is the last straw to postpone the 2020 Tokyo Olympics? In addition to the authoritative advice of the World Health Organization, my answer is the Japanese perfectionism.


In many external speeches made by Abe, he repeatedly emphasized words such as "complete situation holding" and "guaranteeing athletes' competitive state". The purpose is not to reduce the number of events and the excitement of the game. He wants to retire on his own. Fight another beautiful battle before.


This is certainly mixed with considerations of political and economic factors, because a successful Olympic Games can boost national morale to a certain extent and promote Japan's economic recovery.


Of course, there is another point that cannot be ignored. If the Olympic Games are only postponed for about one year, Abe can still participate as prime minister.


Due to the postponement of the event, the torch relay was temporarily suspended, but as long as the torch remains in Japan, this is hope. Let us look forward to the hope of a perfect performance at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics in 2021.


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